Saturday, July 18, 2015

Miss Probability Question

Today's Probability Question is a Real Beauty

1. If all outcomes are equally likely, what is the probability that Mr. Burke has his arm around Miss America 2015?

2. In your opinion, do you think Mr. Burke cares about the answer? Er, I mean ... explain why question 1 is not a reasonable question.

Obviously, in the real world, not all outcomes are equally likely to win the pageant, but if you were to, say, pull a photo of one contestant from a pile, or were to pick a sash at random, you could calculate the probability that the picture or sash belonged to Miss New York.

Also, in the real world, before this past Thursday, Mr. Burke would never believe he'd ever had a photo of himself with his arm around Miss New York (Miss Jamie Lynn Macchia). However, in the real world, if Mr. Burke should ever get such a picture, there is a 100% certainty that he's going to post it!!!